Grain > Commentary > 2-10-2026

2/10/2026

Feb 10, 2026

It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT.  The good news on corn is that this report did not hurt us any, but it is going to be tough to sustain any kind of rally.  Right now, I would target the January 12th pre-report levels for targets (March corn at 4.48 futures). US soybean carryout was pegged at 350 million bushels vs the average trade guess of 347 million bushels.  World soybean carryout was placed at 125.51 MMT vs the average trade guess of 125.30 MMT.  There was no mention of potential additional demand to China, which is not a surprise.  The bean market has had a good rally on the Trump tweet from last week, but now we need additional proof that China business is getting done.  Beans will see a lot of volatility going forward so have some targets working.  Today's soybean close, up 12 cents, is still 15 cents off Friday's highs.  
 

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6/11/2026
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
5/12/2026
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.
1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.